Let?s face it, predicting tornado season activity is a nearly impossible task. Tornado season 2013 predictions will be coming soon, and folks will take a stab at trying to predict what is very much quite unpredictable. We aren?t going to fill you with a bunch of baloney and tell you that storm season will go exactly as we say ? but we will throw some ideas out there for your consumption and consideration as we head into Spring. We?ll go through some of the biggest factors for tornado season 2013 and how they?re shaping up thus far.
Ongoing drought areas as of early February.
The Ongoing Drought
One of the key factors ongoing meteorologically in the Plains is the extensive areas of drought conditions. The highest intensity drought, exceptional drought, covers large portions of the great plains as we continue to March into Spring. While many areas have received beneficial precipitation in the past few weeks including the Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma and NW Nebraska ? we still have a long way to go before we get out of the drought.
Drought conditions will play a couple of roles in severe weather in the spring. The first is that the areas which our EML originates are hotter and drier than normal. Does this mean an overall stronger cap during the Spring months? It can, but that comes with a bit of a disclaimer as well ? because it?s more complicated than that. Similarly, the drier conditions on the Plains are more conducive to dryline mixing ? which could move severe weather?s main impacts in an axis further to the east if drought conditions are prevalent during the Spring.
Tornado Season 2013 will definitely be impacted by drought conditions, but we won?t go a full Spring without storms either. Logical impacts like a further east dryline location than you?d expect plus a more prevalent EML are definitely possible.
Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (departure from average)
How is the Gulf Doing?
Another thing you have to ask yourself as you head into any new storm season is how is our moisture doing? Moisture quality and instability are definitely linked, and if the Gulf is warmer than average you can expect better moisture quicker than normal. As you can see, the SSTs across the Gulf of Mexico down into the Caribbean are warmer than normal and in some cases, much warmer than usual. This is without a doubt owed to the fact that major arctic intrusions into the middle of the country (much less the western Gulf) have been exceptionally rare this winter.
As we head into Spring, you are already seeing the early signs of quality moisture with active severe weather episodes in the South. Tornado Season 2013 on the Plains (traditional Tornado Alley) seems like it will have good moisture quality to tap in to early and often.
The current upper air pattern over America.
The Jet Stream
Upper air winds over America change a lot. Tornado Season 2013 will depend on an active jet stream to have an active tornado season. Last year, during the 2012 tornado season, a large ridge of high pressure settled in during Mid-April sending the jet stream to near Canada through the heart of the most active tornado period (April ? Early June) across the Great Plains. The berth of a ridge of high pressure like that, which storm chasers call a death ridge, is highly unpredictable ? but it is one of the main reasons we find ourselves in exceptional drought conditions as of early February.
However, in the past month things have changed somewhat and we are now seeing more western US troughs work down and across the plains again. This is a pattern that is more favorable for stormy weather across the middle of the country and if it continues into spring, a more active tornado season 2013. Some climate models are moving the predicted spring precipitation into a more neutral or average position ? with no clear signal for drier or wetter weather for the April ? June period.
CFS model precipitation plot for the heart of Tornado Season 2013.
While skill is needed to adequately plot the likelihood of precip anomalies ? computer models are suggestive of a more average Spring when it comes to precipitation.
Dumb Luck/Mesoscale Accidents
The true wildcard in how a tornado season goes is the simple rule of dumb luck and mesoscale accidents. Consider this, if the cap were just a bit more strong on April 14, 2012 or forcing a bit less strong ? it?s possible Oklahoma has a well below average tornado season at that point. What if the cap were much weaker? Kansas doesn?t record a well above average tornado season due to storms interacting with each other. May 24, 2011 had all the ingredients to be a mega tornado outbreak across Oklahoma, but a lot of forcing with not enough cap made storms interact with each other early, destroying tornado potential.
The simple fact is, many days could go either way, and some of those days are enough to swing a season from below average to above average. Trying to predict how those small scale, mesoscale events at this point is impossible. Most tornado seasons have several days which ?could? produce a lot of tornadoes ? some pan out and some don?t. Usually, it?s because of a combination of the factors above along with smaller scale details such as boundary interactions, cap strength vs. when forcing arrives, and more.? Simply put: the biggest part of how tornadoes form ? the small scale details ? are things which we can?t adequately predict.
How will Tornado Season 2013 go?
So with all of that said, and just for fun, I?ll throw a prediction out there that?s as unscientific as it is impossible to actually be completely confident in. I say we will have plenty of severe weather events this Spring, with a busier early season with drought conditions beginning to prevail again late in the year. For storm chasers, I?ll say the best chasing in Tornado Season 2013 is from April 1 ? May 15, the early half of peak season. Overall, I?d expect us to come in somewhere about average this year with a big increase in the number of chase days and tornadoes from where we were in 2012.
There?s little to no chance I?m right, but it?s worth a shot. How do you see tornado season 2013 stacking up?
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Source: http://www.tornadotitans.com/tornado-season-2013-predictions/
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